If January felt like a warm-up, February has made it clear that 2026 is not hanging around. The pace has picked up considerably and from conversations across the sector, it seems many of you are experiencing the same.

What is striking about early 2026 is the number of moving parts. Procurement cycles are tightening, sustainability commitments are being tested against delivery, and the global economic (and political!) backdrop is creating both pressure and opportunity.

One of the things I like as a geography student is a good framework to help make sense of a very volatile world. The World Economic Forum's 2025 outlook identifies five global trends, and it is worth pausing on what these mean in practice for public transport operators and suppliers.

The latest edition of The Surbon Signal is out and this month I've looked at five global trends shaping public transport, all helpfully beginning with the same letter, as identified by the World Economic Forum.

🌍 Deglobalisation

Deglobalisation is reshaping supply chains. For public transport, this means a shift towards regional logistics and local sourcing. Organisations that have relied on global procurement models are rethinking where components, vehicles and services come from. For those supplying into the sector, demonstrating local content and supply chain resilience is becoming a procurement requirement rather than a nice-to-have. The EU's push towards European-manufactured electric buses and battery systems is a direct response to reducing dependency on global supply chains that proved fragile during recent disruptions — as well as creating those all-important "local" jobs.

🌱 Decarbonisation

Decarbonisation continues to drive fleet and infrastructure decisions. Electrification, sustainable fuels and asset renewal are no longer future ambitions — they are live procurement requirements. The challenge for many operators is managing the transition at pace while budgets remain constrained. By late 2025, electric buses accounted for around 50% of new urban bus sales in the EU, and cities from London to Dubai are accelerating timelines to phase out fossil fuel vehicles in line with net-zero targets. This connects directly to the third trend.

💳 Debt

Debt and volatility are creating a difficult funding environment. High debt levels, inflation and economic uncertainty are forcing public transport authorities to extend asset life, prioritise cost-driven innovation, and do more with less. For suppliers, this means demonstrating whole-life value and financial credibility is more important than ever. Over-promising in bids when authorities are under financial pressure carries real risk. Land value capture — collecting a portion of increased property value generated by new transit projects through tools like development charges and business rate supplements — is one example of how authorities are diversifying funding beyond traditional fares and subsidies to manage this pressure.

👥 Demographics

Demographics are shifting the design brief. Ageing populations in many markets, combined with workforce challenges, are accelerating interest in automation and accessible mobility design. This is not just about compliance — it is about designing services that work for the populations actually using them, which in many regions looks very different from a decade ago. Japan is a striking example: driver shortages combined with a rapidly ageing population have driven government-funded trials in demand-responsive transport and autonomous shuttles in regional areas, replacing fixed-route services that are no longer financially sustainable. Singapore is heading in a similar direction, with its Land Transport Authority investing heavily in autonomous vehicle trials to address the same demographic pressures.

💻 Digitalisation

Finally, digitalisation is moving from experimentation to expectation. AI — unavoidable for good reason — predictive analytics, MaaS platforms and smart infrastructure are no longer pilot projects in many markets; they are part of the operating model. Publicly available data remains limited, but a recent logistics sector study showed AI-driven dynamic routing delivering up to 20% reductions in operating costs and 30% in passenger waiting times — a strong indicator of where public transport operations are heading.

What ties all five trends together is a common thread: public transport is being asked to deliver more — greener, smarter, more accessible, more resilient — in a financial and geopolitical environment that is more constrained than it has been in years. That tension between ambition and resources will define much of the sector's decision-making in 2026 and beyond.

2) Interesting reading

​TfL to develop proposals for publicly owned bus company — Route One ​

​West Midlands transport experience under scrutiny — BBC

​Dubai Transit-Oriented Development Manual — Dubai Municipality ​

For a deeper look at how Transit Oriented Development frameworks are evolving across the UK, EU and Middle East, our latest article is here.​

3) Upcoming Events

​17–18 March — Passenger Terminal Expo, London​

​20–22 April — UITP Global Summit, Dubai I am delighted to be moderating a session on Tuesday 21st April. More details in the next newsletter!

Want to connect at an event or discuss your project? Schedule a meeting.​

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